CS2 Case Opening OddsThe Real Numbers
Understand the real odds of case opening. Spoiler: the house always wins. Here's the math behind why.
Warning: Case opening is gambling. On average, you will lose ~15% of money spent. Only open cases for entertainment, never as an investment.
Official Drop Rates
These rates are based on community data and Valve's disclosed odds.
| Rarity | Drop Rate | Odds |
|---|---|---|
Knife / Gloves | 0.26% | 1 in 385 |
Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 1 in 156 |
Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 1 in 31 |
Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 1 in 6 |
Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 4 in 5 |
The Math Behind Cases
Here's what happens on average when you open a case:
Cost Per Opening
Expected Return
Numbers vary by case. Some cases have better/worse odds based on skin values.
Key Takeaways
Knife odds are ~0.26%
You need to open about 385 cases on average to get one knife.
Most openings lose money
80% of cases give blue skins worth less than the case + key cost.
StatTrak adds variance
10% of items are StatTrak, which can significantly increase value.
Float matters
Low float Factory New items are worth more. It's random within skin's range.
Invest Smart Instead
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